博时基金王祥：12月美联储降息难测，黄金短期或弱势震荡

Core Insights - The precious metals market experienced a downward trend last week due to hawkish outlooks from Federal Reserve officials and strong non-farm payroll data for September [1][2] - The exposure of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine has reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting market sentiment [1][2] - The G20 summit reiterated the need for countries to collaborate on common challenges and suggested the IMF sell part of its gold reserves to alleviate debt pressures in developing countries [1][2] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting indicated a hawkish stance, with many officials believing that maintaining interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year is appropriate [2] - The minutes highlighted concerns that further rate cuts could risk entrenching inflation and signal a lack of commitment to the 2% inflation target [2] - Among the voting members, five lean towards a hawkish stance of not cutting rates, while four support further cuts, leaving the final decision dependent on the views of three key officials [1][2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, surpassing market expectations of 50,000, reversing a decline of 4,000 in August [2] - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% [2] Geopolitical Developments - The Russian central bank has begun selling part of its gold reserves to meet budgetary needs, confirming its status as the fifth-largest holder of gold globally with over 2,300 tons [2] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to a more stable market environment [2]