需求分化态势明显 预计沪铝期货企稳震荡

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors, with recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials leading to a stabilization in aluminum prices. However, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain complex, with varying demand across different sectors [2]. Group 1: Market Data - In the third week of November 2025, Brazil shipped a total of 253,500 tons of bauxite and alumina, down from 400,600 tons in November of the previous year [1]. - The average daily shipment volume was 18,100 tons, a decrease of 14.12% compared to 21,100 tons in November of last year [1]. - As of November 21, Shanghai aluminum futures inventory recorded 123,716 tons, an increase of 8,817 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - By November 24, aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down by 8,000 tons from November 20, while aluminum rod inventory was 131,000 tons, down by 6,500 tons, indicating a continuous two-week reduction [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Recent dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, improving market risk appetite and stabilizing aluminum prices. Increased replenishment from downstream sectors has accelerated inventory outflows [2]. - The aluminum industry is currently facing downward pressure on prices due to macroeconomic policies and economic data. The alumina sector has not seen significant production cuts, and the import window remains open, leading to an oversupply situation [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with high output levels. Seasonal environmental restrictions in northern regions have limited local production impacts, while overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to tighten [2]. - Demand is showing a mixed trend, with construction material demand weak due to the sluggish real estate sector, while orders in automotive lightweighting and energy storage remain robust [2]. - Given the constraints on electrolytic aluminum production capacity and limited growth potential, a medium-term upward trend in aluminum prices is anticipated. The recommendation is to buy on dips, with a support range of 21,000-21,200 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].