Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896), highlighting its position as a leader in private label and IP-driven retail, with significant growth potential from overseas expansion and IP strategies [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, exceeding the company's guidance of 25-28% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, a decrease of 31% year-on-year, primarily due to investment losses from Yonghui Supermarket and increased equity incentive costs [1] - Adjusted net profit, excluding certain expenses, was 767 million yuan, reflecting an 11.75% year-on-year increase [1] - Overall same-store GMV showed single-digit growth year-on-year [1] Group 2: Domestic Performance - Domestic MINISO revenue for Q3 2025 was 2.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.36%, with same-store GMV showing high single-digit growth [2] - The company continues to implement its strategy of "opening large stores and opening good stores," ending Q3 2025 with 4,407 domestic stores, a net increase of 105 stores during the quarter [2] Group 3: Overseas Performance - Overseas revenue for Q3 2025 reached 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, with 117 new stores added, bringing the total to 3,424 [4] - Same-store GMV in overseas markets showed low single-digit growth [4] - The company plans to slow down the pace of new store openings in the U.S. while focusing on quality, with new stores expected to generate 1.5 times the sales of older stores [4] Group 4: Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 13.23%, down 1.94 percentage points [3] - The sales and management expense ratios were 24.67% and 5.93%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.63 and 0.71 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher proportion of U.S. stores and equity incentives in the TOPTOY segment [3] - Adjusted operating profit margin was 17.2%, with a year-on-year decline that was smaller compared to Q1 and Q2 2025, aligning with company expectations [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue growth of 25-30% year-on-year, with same-store growth in both China and the U.S. expected to be in the low double digits, indicating further acceleration compared to Q3 2025 [5]
东吴证券:维持名创优品(09896)“买入”评级 TOP TOY加速成长 Q4旺季表现值得期待