《即时零售行业发展报告（2025）》：预计“十五五”期间行业年均增速达到12.6%

Core Insights - The report from the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute indicates that China's instant retail market is poised to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 12.6% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - Instant retail is becoming a new growth driver in China's retail sector, with a projected market size of 781 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, significantly outpacing the national online retail growth by 12.95 percentage points and the total retail sales growth by 16.65 percentage points [1][2] - The industry is at a critical juncture towards achieving a trillion-yuan scale, emphasizing the need for a healthy ecosystem as a key measure of high-quality development, with major platforms like Meituan Shanguo leading the way in establishing high-standard service systems [1] Market Trends - Approximately 80% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for health-oriented products, indicating a strong consumer focus on health in instant retail [2] - Instant retail platforms are rapidly expanding into county markets, with Meituan Shanguo covering 2,800 counties and cities, and having over 10,000 flash warehouses in lower-tier markets by September 2025 [2] - The growth rate of users, order volume, and transaction value in lower-tier markets exceeds that of high-tier cities, with young users from small towns making up nearly a quarter of the user base and showing a growth rate close to 30% [2] Operational Efficiency - The scale and digital development of front warehouses have significantly enhanced fulfillment efficiency, contributing to over half of the transaction volume in the instant retail ecosystem [2] - Future growth engines for instant retail are expected to be "full-domain penetration" and "multi-scenario expansion," with substantial growth potential in the domestic county market [2] - The integration of artificial intelligence and big data is anticipated to empower various aspects of the business, including product selection, replenishment, delivery, marketing, and after-sales service [2]