盛松成：新阶段三大特征支撑人民币中长期稳中有升

Core Viewpoint - The future direction of the RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on preventing excessive appreciation to avoid impacting exports. Stability remains the key theme [1][7]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate has a long-term foundation for stable appreciation due to factors such as the new phase of "two-way investment," diversification of trade partners, and improvements in labor productivity [1][4]. - The RMB's strength or weakness directly influences the motivation for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, with a stable RMB reducing exchange rate risks for overseas investments [5][6]. Group 2: Changes in China's Economic Structure - China is transitioning to a "two-way investment" phase, balancing foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), with ODI surpassing FDI since 2015 [4][5]. - By 2024, China's ODI is projected to grow by 8.4%, reaching a global share of 11.9%, maintaining a position among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years [4]. Group 3: Trade Partner Diversification - China's trade concentration is decreasing, with exports to the top three trading partners (U.S., EU, ASEAN) dropping from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, indicating enhanced economic resilience [6][7]. - The share of exports to "Belt and Road" countries has increased from under 25% in 2013 to 47% in 2024, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [6]. Group 4: Global Currency Landscape - The international status and appreciation potential of the RMB are strengthening amid challenges to the dollar's credibility and a trend towards diversification of global central bank reserves [8][9]. - The share of the dollar in global official foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 61.5% in 2020 to an expected 56.32% by 2025, indicating a shift in global currency preferences [8]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - Continuous improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, such as rising labor productivity and a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology exports, supports the RMB's long-term appreciation [9][10]. - The RMB is considered undervalued based on purchasing power parity, with estimates suggesting it could be closer to a 1:3.5 ratio rather than the current market rate of approximately 7.1 [9][10].