Barnes (US:B) Benzinga·2025-11-25 11:24Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to rise further in 2026 due to tightening supply, increasing market deficits, and mine disruptions, with UBS upgrading its yearly outlook significantly [1][3]. Price Forecasts - UBS raised its March 2026 copper target by $750 per metric ton to $11,500, and increased its June and September forecasts by $1,000 each to $12,000 and $12,500 respectively [2]. - A new December 2026 target of $13,000 per ton has also been introduced [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS projects a 230,000-ton shortfall in copper supply for 2025 and a 407,000-ton deficit for 2026, significantly higher than previous estimates, as refined output growth is expected to slow to 1.2% and 2.2% for the two years [3]. - Global copper consumption is anticipated to grow by 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid upgrades, and data center construction [6]. Mine Disruptions - Multiple mine disruptions have been noted, including lower-than-expected recoveries in Chile and ongoing unrest in Peru, alongside operational issues at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg complex in Indonesia [4]. - Freeport-McMoRan is recovering from a September mudflow incident at the Grasberg Block Cave, which halted operations and resulted in a production target reduction from 700,000 tons to 478,000 tons for 2026 [5]. Strategic Importance and Government Policy - The strategic importance of copper is reshaping government policy, with the U.S. government prioritizing the securing of copper and other critical minerals as a matter of national security [8]. - The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) plans to invest $100 billion to reduce dependence on China and Russia, with significant funding already allocated to projects like Barrick's Reko Diq in Pakistan [9].