大幅加税在所难免？英国财相新预算案即将面临信任大考

Group 1 - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a significant tax increase in her second annual budget, despite previously claiming that no such measures would be necessary [1][4] - The upcoming budget will be closely scrutinized by the bond market, which is sensitive to changes in fiscal policy [1] - A recent YouGov poll indicates that only 9% of the British public believes Reeves is performing well in her role, while 61% disapprove [1] Group 2 - Reeves is attempting to convince financial markets of her reliable public finance plan while also reassuring her party colleagues that she can still deliver on promises to improve public services and increase investment [2] - She has been advocating for "secure economics," emphasizing the need for government preparedness in a time of frequent shocks [2] - Critics have pointed out that Reeves may not have been adequately prepared for the challenges she faces, particularly in light of external pressures such as U.S. tariffs and global conflicts [2] Group 3 - Reeves' public persona as a staunch defender of fiscal rules contrasts with her more vulnerable private demeanor, as evidenced by her emotional response in Parliament [3] - The communication failures within Starmer's government have raised concerns about their ability to maintain investor confidence, especially following the turmoil of the previous government's mini-budget crisis [3] Group 4 - Investors are concerned about the potential for tax increases, particularly on income tax, which could lead to significant reductions in investment [4] - The announcement of a potential shift away from income tax increases to smaller, less clear revenue-raising measures shocked the market, leading to a drop in UK bonds [4] - Key sectors that may be affected by the upcoming budget include banking, residential construction, retail, and commercial real estate [4] Group 5 - Despite reports that Reeves will not impose new taxes on large banks, investor confidence has been shaken by her inconsistent policy adjustments [5] - The UK bond market has shown signs of losing patience with uncertainty, and any new Chancellor may not adhere to the same fiscal conservatism as Reeves [6] - The long-term performance of UK bonds has been relatively better than most G7 counterparts this year, but since the Labour Party's victory last July, only Japanese bonds have performed worse [6] Group 6 - Reeves has managed to reassure financial representatives during her recent trip to the U.S., but her reputation in the UK business community continues to decline due to past tax increases and ongoing policy uncertainty [9] - The CBI has criticized Reeves for neglecting business concerns in key policy areas, contrasting with her previous efforts to gain support from the business sector [10] - The bond market poses a direct threat to her position, and if investors react negatively to the upcoming budget, it could lead to opposition from Labour Party members [10]