混沌2026 中国资产能否成为全球“避风港”？

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is transitioning from a linear trajectory to a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, leading to heightened sensitivity to disturbances and a dual feature of instability and resilience optimization [1] - Major economic policies are diverging, exacerbating global structural differentiation, while structural reforms, supply chain restructuring, and technological innovation are simultaneously reshaping the growth foundation [1] - China's performance and choices are critical in this global context, with its vast domestic market, ongoing industrial upgrades, and relatively ample policy space positioning its assets at the center of global capital attention [1] Group 2: Policy and Profit Recovery - China is creating conditions for corporate profit recovery through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies amid a transition between old and new economic equilibria [2] - The MSCI China Index is projected to see a 10% increase in earnings per share by 2026, driven by anti-involution measures and reduced depreciation expenses from declining capital expenditures [2] - Continuous policy support is effectively boosting corporate profitability and investment value, with expectations for steady increases in ROE and dividend yields for listed companies [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a substantial force driving China's economic transformation, with 2025 anticipated as the "AI application year" [3] - Global recognition of China's AI industry is growing, with significant breakthroughs in technology innovation and favorable policies expected to enhance profitability [4] - The restructuring of supply chains is creating new investment opportunities, particularly in technology independence, resilient supply chains, and energy security [4] Group 4: Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - The easing of global monetary policies and a weakening dollar are creating favorable conditions for emerging market assets, including those in Asia [6] - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to reach a target of 100 by the end of 2026, indicating a potential 14% increase from current levels, supported by inflows from domestic and foreign investors [6] - China's assets are facing significant value reassessment opportunities amid a dual critical state of upward potential and downward risks, driven by structural reforms and technological innovations [6] Group 5: Micro-Level Changes - The potential for China to become a global capital "safe haven" lies not in macro data but in ongoing micro-level transformations, such as technological breakthroughs and smart factory upgrades [7] - These subtle changes are becoming key nodes that could shift the overall landscape, indicating that perceptions of Chinese assets represent a vote for the future [7]