Happy Returns For Holiday Shopping Season?

Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Despite sticky inflation and rising healthcare premiums, consumer shopping is expected to increase, with an estimated 187 million Americans planning to shop from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, which is 3 million more than last year's record [3] - Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day, with around 70% (131 million people) intending to take advantage of deals, indicating the resilience of the American consumer [4] - The National Retail Federation forecasts total holiday spending during November and December to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with sales growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024 [4] Group 2: Retail Sector Performance - The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index and S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index have underperformed this year, lagging behind the broader S&P 500 Index due to macroeconomic factors and a focus on high-growth sectors like AI [6] - Discount retailers such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have shown strong performance, up 34% year-to-date, while Coca-Cola and Walmart are up 16% year-to-date [6] - Notable gainers in the discretionary sector include Tapestry, Ralph Lauren, Wynn Resorts, and Hasbro, with year-to-date gains ranging from 40% to 60% [6]