高市经济学“猛药”恐毒害日本

Economic Stimulus Plan - The Japanese government approved a total economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen, with 17.7 trillion yen from supplementary budget arrangements and 2.7 trillion yen from tax cuts [1] - The spending is divided into three categories: 11.7 trillion yen for "living security and price measures," 7.2 trillion yen for "crisis management and growth investment," and 1.7 trillion yen for "strengthening defense and diplomacy" [1] Economic Performance - Japan's GDP decreased by 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking the second negative growth since Q1 2024 [2] - The decline is attributed to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the automotive industry, which has been severely affected [2] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing challenges [2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase [2] - Significant price increases were noted in rice (up 40.2%), chocolate (up 36.9%), and coffee beans (up 53.4%) [2] - The depreciation of the yen is contributing to rising consumer prices, with imported price increases being passed on to domestic retail [2] Market Reactions - Concerns over Japan's fiscal deterioration have intensified, leading to a depreciation of the yen, which fell to its lowest level in 10 months [3] - The yield on newly issued 20-year government bonds reached 2.810%, the highest in 26 years, while the 10-year yield hit approximately 1.8%, the highest since 2008 [3] - The Tokyo stock market has experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping below 49,000 points [3] Fiscal Policy Changes - The government has abandoned its goal of achieving an annual fiscal surplus, which is seen as a significant policy shift [4] - The scale of supplementary budgets has increased dramatically post-pandemic, with the current budget reaching 17.7 trillion yen [4] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of expansionary fiscal policies without reliable funding sources, drawing parallels to the UK's "Truss shock" [4] Economic Cycle Concerns - The large-scale economic stimulus measures may not effectively address high inflation and could potentially exacerbate the situation [5] - Analysts suggest that the government's approach may lead to a "vicious cycle" where stimulus measures fail to alleviate economic pressures [5] - Critics argue that the government's fiscal policies are neither "active" nor "responsible," with calls for a reassessment of the current strategy [6]