【市场探“涨”】磷化工上游核心材料价格飙升

Core Insights - The recent surge in chemical and industrial product prices, particularly sulfur, is driven by supply constraints and increased demand from the renewable energy sector [1][2] - The price of liquid sulfur in China rose from 2860 CNY/ton to 3692 CNY/ton, marking a 29.09% increase, while solid sulfur prices increased by 29.66% during the same period [1][2] - The sulfur price increase is expected to continue in the short term, supported by seasonal agricultural demand and a new procurement cycle starting in January 2026 [8] Supply Dynamics - Global sulfur supply is primarily derived from oil and gas processing by-products, which have been affected by reduced traditional energy consumption and OPEC+ production cuts [2] - Russia's recent sulfur export ban has further tightened supply, impacting imports to China [2] - Domestic sulfur production capacity is projected to grow, reaching approximately 18.11 million tons by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [8] Demand Trends - The renewable energy sector, particularly lithium iron phosphate battery production, is a significant driver of sulfur demand, as sulfuric acid production relies heavily on sulfur [2] - Phosphate fertilizers account for the largest share of sulfur demand, projected to represent 52.75% in 2024 [2] Price Impact on Related Products - The rise in sulfur prices has led to an increase in sulfuric acid prices, which rose from 710 CNY/ton to a range of 1050-1110 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.00% to 4.72% increase [3] - Industries such as titanium dioxide may face cost pressures due to rising sulfur prices, potentially impacting profit margins [5] Industry Outlook - Companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical and China Petroleum are key players in the domestic sulfur supply market, with significant production capacities [8] - The ongoing price increases are expected to positively impact the sulfur business of these companies, prompting them to optimize resource allocation in response to market dynamics [8]