智通财经网·2025-11-25 14:32Core Viewpoint - The unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth highlights a cautious consumer spending environment amid a weakening labor market and temporary inflation due to tariffs, reinforcing the narrative of a "Goldilocks" soft landing for the economy [1][5][9] Retail Sales Data - In September, U.S. retail sales rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, following a strong 0.6% growth in August [5][6] - Excluding autos and gas, sales increased by just 0.1%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The "control group" sales, a key indicator for GDP calculations, declined by 0.1%, marking the first drop in five months [8] Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that middle and low-income consumers are feeling the pressure from inflation and employment challenges, leading to more cautious spending [5][7] - High-income consumers continue to support overall spending, but there are signs of strain among lower-income shoppers, with many seeking discounts and essential goods [7][9] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the OBBBA tax cuts and the temporary nature of inflation from tariffs will contribute to a strong economic growth effect starting in 2026, supporting the "Goldilocks" narrative [1] - The upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping events are expected to significantly boost consumer spending, which accounts for 60%-70% of U.S. GDP [9][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following the retail data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 80% probability of a cut according to CME FedWatch Tool [3][4][7] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to cut rates, reflecting concerns over consumer affordability [7]