Ceasefire Speculation Tests Oil’s Floor

Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 2.5% following reports of Ukraine agreeing to a peace deal with the U.S. [1] - ICE Brent crude reached $62 per barrel after media reports on peace talks, although refinery margins have limited further declines [7] European Gas Market - European gas prices have dropped below €30 per MWh (approximately $11 per MMbtu), the lowest since May 2024, due to peace talks, warmer weather, and ample supply [3] - Current gas inventories in Europe are at 78% capacity, with Germany at 70%, while France and Italy are at 88% and 89% respectively [4] - Europe is expected to import 12 million tonnes of LNG this month, with U.S. supplies making up 60% of that total [4] Market Developments - Woodside Energy is evaluating the feasibility of a 5 mtpa LNG plant in East Timor, sourced from its Greater Sunrise fields [5] - Dangote has contracted Honeywell to double its refining capacity to 1.4 million b/d by 2028 [5] - ConocoPhillips signed a deal with Syria's Syrian Petroleum Company to develop the gas sector post-civil war [6] - ExxonMobil has indefinitely postponed its Baytown blue hydrogen project due to weak customer demand [6] Saudi Arabia's Oil Strategy - Saudi Aramco is considering selling assets worth billions to mitigate the impact of lower oil prices, focusing on divesting stakes in oil export and storage terminals [8]