供给压力逐步缓解 春节前猪价预计温和回升

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads, signaling a gradual alleviation of the previous overcapacity in the pig industry, which had led to persistently low pork prices [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Trends - As of the end of October, the national breeding sow inventory is reported to be below 40 million heads, which is a significant reduction from previous levels [1]. - Experts predict that the reduction in inventory will contribute to a gradual recovery in pork prices, especially as the peak consumption season approaches during the Spring Festival [1][3]. - The average price of pork has decreased by 0.7% week-on-week and 25.9% year-on-year during the week of November 14-20, indicating ongoing price pressures despite the inventory adjustments [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures and Industry Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented measures to guide a reduction of approximately 1 million breeding sows, in collaboration with other governmental departments [2]. - A recent meeting emphasized the need for comprehensive capacity regulation and the establishment of a high-quality development framework for the pig industry, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and industry chain collaboration [3]. - The Ministry aims to enhance the competitiveness of the pig industry by improving breeding systems, optimizing processing layouts, and ensuring effective disease control measures [3].