【华龙策略】周报:市场震荡修复

Core Viewpoints - Various style indices experienced adjustments last week, with cyclical and growth styles seeing the most significant declines due to recent rapid increases leading to overvaluation and short-term profit-taking [3][7] - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased, although there remains considerable disagreement among officials regarding this decision [10] Market Liquidity - Overall market liquidity remains sufficient, with average daily trading volume close to 2 trillion yuan despite recent fluctuations [11] - The margin financing balance has stabilized around 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a steady recovery since the beginning of the year [11] - Long-term capital inflows are evident, with insurance funds' stock investments increasing by 1.19 trillion yuan to 3.62 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [11] Market Analysis - The market is undergoing a corrective phase, with major indices experiencing declines, influenced by external factors affecting the technology sector and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [13][15] - Despite the adjustments, there are signs of potential positive changes, including strong inflows into equity ETFs and a shift in external factors towards a more favorable outlook regarding the Federal Reserve's rate decisions [15] Industry and Theme Allocation - Focus on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, which have seen some overvaluation corrections while maintaining high overall economic vitality [5][15] - Continuous attention to "anti-involution" policies, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals where fundamentals are improving and valuations are reasonable [5] - Emphasis on domestic demand improvement, with potential opportunities in machinery, home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics benefiting from domestic policies [5][15]