Why this economist is worried about the economy and labor market

Core Viewpoint - There is a broad-based decline in consumer confidence, particularly regarding jobs, incomes, and financial expectations, likely influenced by the government shutdown [2][3][5]. Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence has decreased significantly in November, with families reporting a negative assessment of their financial situations [2][3]. - Discretionary spending plans are declining, as consumers are cutting back on spending for services and entertainment [3][10]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is experiencing a lack of churn, with minimal hiring and layoffs, yet the unemployment rate is gradually increasing [5]. - The labor differential index, which measures job availability perceptions, has been on a downward trend, correlating with the rising unemployment rate [5]. Demographic Trends - There are notable demographic differences in confidence levels, with younger individuals under 35 showing improved confidence, while those over 55 are less optimistic despite market gains [6][7]. Holiday Shopping Outlook - Consumers are entering the holiday shopping season with caution, indicating a potential shift in spending behavior [8][10]. - Retail sales data for Q3 suggests robust consumer spending overall, but there are signs of caution as the quarter ends, particularly in discretionary purchases [9][10].