Retail Sales Up 0.2% in September, Lower Than Expected

Core Insights - The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for September indicates that consumer spending was lower than expected, with a 0.2% increase in headline sales compared to the anticipated 0.4% growth [1] - Total retail and food services sales for September 2025 reached $733.3 billion, marking a 4.3% increase from September 2024 [1] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.3% in September, down from 0.6% in August, and are up 4.1% year-over-year [4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail trade sales increased by 0.1% from August 2025 and 3.9% from the previous year, with nonstore retailers seeing a 6.0% increase and food service establishments up 6.7% year-over-year [2] - Monthly retail sales have shown consistent growth since March 2021, reflecting pent-up consumer demand post-pandemic, with a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [3] Control Purchases Analysis - Retail sales control purchases, which provide a more stable view of the economy, fell by 0.1% in September, contrasting with the expected 0.3% growth [5] - Year-over-year, control purchases are up 4.2%, indicating a steady trend despite the recent monthly decline [6] Market Implications - The retail sales data is likely to influence interest in various retail-focused ETFs, including SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) [8]