港股2026年或延续结构性行情三大景气主线值得关注

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 29.09% and 25.60% respectively, driven by liquidity and sentiment, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2023 is attributed to "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," with valuation and sentiment playing a significant role [1][2] - Despite external uncertainties, the market has benefited from trends in the AI industry and improvements in the domestic economic fundamentals [1][2] - The overall profitability of listed companies in Hong Kong is slightly below initial expectations for 2023, with sectors like biopharmaceuticals and technology hardware showing resilience, while e-commerce and real estate face more significant pressures [2] Group 2: Future Liquidity and Investment Strategies - The liquidity environment is expected to remain ample in the first half of 2026, with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although the long-term interest rate is projected to stay high at 3.8% to 4% [2][3] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with an expected inflow of 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital, and 500 billion HKD from individual investors [3] - Investment preferences are shifting from high-dividend sectors to growth areas, with a focus on AI technology and sectors benefiting from overseas demand [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment directions for 2026 include AI-driven industry trends, capacity cycle reversals, and sectors related to export and commodities amid global uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their strategies, balancing between chasing structural growth and taking profits when market conditions become overheated [5]