Where Next?: Crypto Daybook Americas

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline, dropping to $86,000 from a weekend high of around $88,000, while the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell to 2,758 points from 2,816 [1][2] Investor Sentiment - BTC is on a four-week losing streak, primarily due to institutional capitulation, leading to diminished investor confidence and making a quick recovery to $100,000 unlikely [2] - Analysts are cautious, with many avoiding clear directional views on the market [2] Short-term Outlook - A potential rebound is anticipated; however, if BTC falls below the $80,000 level, the likelihood of facing a more challenging period increases significantly [3] Macro Economic Factors - The possibility of a December interest-rate cut in the U.S. has emerged, with a 75% chance assigned by traders following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials [4] - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including producer price index, retail sales, GDP, and PCE, could influence these odds if they indicate cooling inflation and slower growth [4][5] Investment Strategy Shift - The current economic environment is characterized by "fiscal dominance/state capitalism," where governments are taking the lead in managing debt-to-GDP ratios, contrasting with the previous Fed-dominant era [6][7] - Investors are advised to reconsider their reliance on Fed-driven market booms, as the focus has shifted towards assets benefiting from fiscal spending and those with store-of-value appeal [7]