Down 65% This Year, Is The Trade Desk Stock a Buy?

Core Insights - The Trade Desk is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue rising 18% year over year to $739 million, down from 27% growth in Q3 2024 and 22% in the first half of 2025 [4][6] - Despite the decline in stock price, The Trade Desk remains profitable, with a net income margin of 16% and adjusted EBITDA of 43% in Q3 2025, alongside generating $155 million in free cash flow [1][6] - The company faces increased competition from tech giants and has a high price-to-earnings ratio of 45, compared to Meta's 26, raising concerns about its valuation relative to growth [9][15] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, The Trade Desk's revenue was $739 million, reflecting an 18% increase year over year, but a deceleration from previous growth rates [4][10] - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be at least $840 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of about 13% compared to Q4 2024 [10] - Excluding political ad spending from the previous year, the implied growth rate for Q4 2025 would be approximately 18.5% [11] Business Model and Market Position - The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform, allowing brands to purchase digital ads across the open internet, which includes connected TV, retail media, and podcasts [5][12] - The company emphasizes its objectivity compared to platforms that control their own ad inventory, which is valued by many brands [12] - However, it relies on inventory and data controlled by others, posing strategic risks as integrated players like Amazon offer combined services [13] Management and Strategic Focus - Management highlights the role of AI in enhancing its advertising capabilities, enabling data-rich buying across channels [7] - The company has a strong balance sheet, generating substantial operating cash flow and repurchasing $310 million in stock, with an additional $500 million in buyback authorization [14] - Despite the attractive margins and high customer retention, the stock's high valuation may deter potential investors [15]