'Very confident' labor market will turn around in 2026, says Treasury official Joe Lavorgna

Economic Overview - The PPI report for September indicates that wholesale prices are rising less than expected, suggesting a potential cooling of inflation [1] - Consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since April, raising concerns about the labor market [1][11] - Retail sales numbers have softened, following a previous gain of 610 million [1][3] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The Atlanta Fed's growth estimate is at 4%, supported by strong consumer spending and capital expenditures [3][7] - Commodity prices are near a 52-week low, and energy prices are moderating, contributing to a positive inflation outlook [4] - The Fed is expected to respond to the improving inflation outlook and the current rates being above neutral [4][9] Labor Market Insights - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions in job numbers for 2023 [6] - Concerns exist regarding college graduates struggling to find jobs, attributed to a slowing job market and the impact of AI [11][13] - Small businesses continue to show high confidence levels, which are crucial for job creation [12] Capital Expenditures and Future Outlook - Capital spending has seen a 15% increase in the first half of the year, the best performance since 2011, which typically leads to hiring [13] - Optimism around the administration's policies on capital expensing is contributing to an investment boom [7] - A forecast suggests that the labor market will improve for new graduates by 2026 [14]