市场预期逆转：美联储12月降息概率飙升至80%，债市多头押注创纪录

Core Viewpoint - Investors are significantly betting on the Federal Reserve's policymakers to cut interest rates again in the upcoming meeting next month, following a week where doubts about rate cuts have dissipated, laying the groundwork for a rise in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Market Sentiment - The shift in interest rate expectations began with the mixed September non-farm payroll data released last week, followed by comments from New York Fed President John Williams indicating potential room for rate cuts due to a weak labor market [3]. - The futures market reflects a dovish sentiment, with a recent survey from JPMorgan showing net long positions at their highest level in about 15 years [3]. Treasury Yield Movement - On Tuesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4% for the first time in a month, influenced by speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential future Fed chair, which has heightened expectations for rate cuts over the next year [4]. Positioning in Futures Market - Since last Thursday, the total number of new positions in January federal funds futures has approached 275,000 contracts, indicating a significant increase in market positioning for a rate cut [5]. - The price of the January contract rose from a low of 96.18 to a high of 96.35, reflecting continued inflow of new long positions [5]. Divergence in Predictions - While most Wall Street strategists predict a rate cut in December, not all are as confident as traders. Morgan Stanley has removed its forecast for a rate cut, and JPMorgan leans towards maintaining rates next month, although the December decision remains close [6]. - Overall, the economic growth in the U.S. has been strong, but there are still downward risks in the labor market, and inflation remains above target levels [6]. Options Market Activity - In the SOFR options market, there has been a significant increase in open interest for contracts with a strike price of 96.25, primarily driven by a surge in bullish positions for December 2025 options [9][10]. - The premium for options used to hedge Treasury risks has remained near neutral levels, with a slight bias towards call options, indicating that traders are paying more to hedge against short- and medium-term contract price increases [13].