前日本央行货币政策主管：日元疲软提高12月加息可能性

Group 1 - The recent depreciation of the yen is increasing the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) next month, with a high probability of a December rate increase if no major negative news arises [1][4] - The yen has depreciated approximately 5% over the past three months, reaching a 10-month low against the dollar, which has raised concerns about rising import costs and inflationary pressures [4][5] - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic plan worth 21.3 trillion yen to support the economy and consumers affected by inflation, marking the largest stimulus measure since the pandemic [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's core inflation rate accelerated to 3% last month, remaining above the 2% target for three and a half years, prompting the central bank to closely monitor the yen's impact on potential inflation [5] - Market participants are speculating on the timing of the BOJ's rate hike, with a 40% probability for December and a 90% probability for January, as recent surveys indicate December as the most likely time for action [5][6] - The BOJ policy committee appears to be increasingly supportive of a rate hike in the coming months, with recent comments from committee members indicating a shift towards normalizing monetary policy [6]