Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beef cattle industry is experiencing a recovery in 2023, with an increase in beef production and prices, despite a decline in cattle inventory by 4.4% at the end of 2024 compared to the previous year, marking the end of five consecutive years of growth [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Recovery - The overall recovery of the beef cattle industry in China is evident, with beef production reaching 5.5 million tons in the first three quarters of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2]. - The number of beef cattle slaughtered in the same period was 35.64 million heads, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year [2]. - Beef prices have rebounded, with the cost of slaughter cattle rising from 10-12 yuan per jin in August 2022 to around 14 yuan per jin in August 2023, positively impacting the confidence of breeding farms [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recovery is attributed to changes in supply-demand dynamics and significant policy support, as highlighted in the 2025 Central Document No. 1, which emphasizes stabilizing the beef cattle industry [2]. - The previous year's market saw a structural change in consumption and a surge in low-priced imported beef, leading to significant price drops and losses for domestic breeders [2]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges - The long breeding cycle of cattle complicates timely adjustments to production based on market demand, with a typical cycle spanning 28 months [5]. - The current trend of diverting breeding cows into the fattening market could reduce the breeding stock in the long term, posing risks to sustainable development in the beef cattle industry [5]. Group 4: Regional Advantages - Henan province, a traditional beef cattle breeding area, reported a beef production of 391,300 tons in 2024, a 3.0% increase [6]. - The logistics cost advantage in Henan, particularly from Qingdao Port, and lower feed costs contribute to the region's competitive edge in beef production [7]. Group 5: Future Development Goals - The company aims to double its beef cattle inventory in Henan to 40,000 heads and achieve an annual processing capacity of 400,000 tons, generating approximately 30 billion yuan in revenue [7]. - The establishment of a supply chain division aims to enhance cost efficiency through collaborative procurement and cross-regional cooperation [8]. Group 6: Industry Transformation - The beef cattle industry is transitioning from traditional to modern, intensive practices, necessitating large enterprises to lead this transformation by addressing industry challenges [10]. - The integration of data-driven management and the expansion of deep processing capabilities are essential for increasing the value-added of beef products [10].
【高端访谈】肉牛产业复苏可期 算好成本、效益“精细账”——专访恒都集团副总裁朱刚泉