机构：绿证市场活力有望进一步被激发

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration issued 370 million green power certificates in October 2025, involving 374,100 renewable energy projects, with 158 million being tradable, accounting for 42.61% of the total [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The subsidy repayment issue has suppressed the valuation of the green electricity sector for years, but since July 2025, there has been an acceleration in subsidy disbursement by "two networks" companies, with some companies exceeding their total disbursement from the previous year in July and August [1] - The issuance of Document No. 136 has intensified competition among incremental projects, leading to some photovoltaic projects' returns falling below the investment return requirements of central enterprises, suggesting that future capital expenditures by green electricity operators may become more rational, improving free cash flow [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - According to Open Source Securities, the gap between supply and demand for green certificates is narrowing, with inventory expected to be cleared soon, and the coverage of green electricity environmental value is likely to increase [1] - The green certificate price is expected to rise, enhancing the environmental value of green electricity. By 2026, the supply shock of green certificates will end, and four major energy-consuming sectors will face assessments on green electricity consumption ratios, which is likely to further stimulate market activity [1]