刚刚宣布！降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and aiming to support consumer and business confidence amid a slower economic recovery [1][3]. Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OCR was made after a discussion between maintaining the rate at 2.5% and lowering it to 2.25%, with a 5:1 vote in favor of the latter [3]. - The committee noted that the reduction in OCR is intended to bolster confidence and counteract the slower-than-expected economic recovery [3]. Economic Indicators - The annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3% in the September quarter, reaching the upper limit of the monetary policy target range of 1% to 3% [3]. - The committee anticipates that inflation will decline to around 2% by mid-2026, despite current pressures from high gasoline and food prices [3]. - Economic activity indicators have shown improvement since the June quarter, suggesting a moderate GDP growth for the September quarter [4]. Labor Market and Migration - There are initial signs of stabilization in labor demand, with increases in job vacancies and total hours worked [4]. - New Zealand is experiencing a significant outflow of young people, with nearly 73,000 citizens expected to leave for Australia between September 2024 and September 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [8]. Leadership Transition - The recent monetary policy meeting was the last chaired by acting chair Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Blayman set to take over, who is perceived as a dovish member from her time at the Swedish central bank [7]. - Market expectations regarding Blayman's future policy stance are mixed, with some analysts predicting a potential shift towards a "neutral to hawkish" approach [7].