华创证券：把握航运业供需缺口核心变量 看好油、散、集运支线市场机会

Group 1: Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is expected to benefit from three sustainable factors: global crude oil production increase, improved trade structure due to sanctions, and supply constraints, driving market conditions upward [1][2] - Since the second half of 2025, the oil shipping industry's market conditions have improved, with VLCC freight rates rebounding earlier in August, reaching $126,000/day on November 13, and an average of $104,000/day in November, surpassing the highest values since 2022 [1] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping market has been recovering since the second half of 2025, with the BDI average rising to 1997 points, slightly above the levels seen in 2022, driven by the consumption of iron ore port inventories and improvements in the steel industry [3] - The supply growth for dry bulk shipping is limited, with Capesize orders only accounting for 9.32%, and the effective supply is expected to be impacted by stricter environmental policies [3] Group 3: Container Shipping - The container shipping market in Asia remains tight, with supply constraints as new orders focus on larger vessels, while smaller vessels face aging issues, leading to a projected growth rate of only 0.5% for 3000TEU vessels in 2026 [4] - Despite a temporary easing of US-China tariff tensions, the demand for container shipping in Asia is expected to continue to grow above industry rates due to regional economic growth [4]