Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a slight decline, currently quoted at 0.8064, reflecting a 0.06% drop from the previous trading day, continuing a low-level oscillation trend over the past two weeks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/CHF pair has seen a significant pullback since its peak in October, currently situated in a low-level oscillation range, with ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing, providing support for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency, while a rebound in the US stock market has somewhat suppressed its safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Divergence in central bank policies remains a key driver, with high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December putting pressure on the USD index and limiting its upward potential [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a neutral stance, having paused interest rate hikes but remains cautious of excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc, with a high threshold for reintroducing negative interest rates, which supports the Franc [1] - Switzerland's trade surplus expanded to 3.2 billion Swiss Francs in October, contributing to the underlying strength of the Swiss Franc [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term market expectations are focused on consolidation, with key technical support around the 0.8060 range and the psychological barrier at 0.8000 seen as a potential intervention point for the Swiss National Bank [2] - Resistance is concentrated in the 0.8086-0.8090 range, which needs to be breached to open up upward movement [2] - Future tracking of US non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and geopolitical developments will be crucial as these factors may catalyze a breakout from the current oscillation range, with investors advised to be cautious of short-term volatility risks following data releases [2]
瑞士法郎避险情绪 政策分化主导震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-26 02:54