智通财经网·2025-11-26 02:53Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the cumulative sales of passenger vehicles from January to October 2025 reached 18.769 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The firm forecasts a year-on-year growth rate for passenger vehicle terminal sales in 2025 to be between 5% and 10% [1][2]. Group 1: Sales and Market Trends - The cumulative sales of passenger vehicles in 2025 from January to October were 18.769 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1]. - In October 2025, the domestic passenger vehicle insurance registrations were 2.086 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.4% [1]. - The ASP (Average Selling Price) of the passenger vehicle industry increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October 2025, marking a positive change in ASP growth [2]. Group 2: Policy and Future Outlook - The core policy goal for the passenger vehicle industry in 2026 may focus on increasing ASP to avoid deflation [2]. - The report suggests that if the vehicle replacement subsidy policy continues, it could contribute an estimated 2.1% elasticity to the terminal sales of passenger vehicles in 2026 [2]. - The expected year-on-year growth rate for domestic terminal sales of passenger vehicles in 2026 is projected to be around 1% under a neutral scenario [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Share - As of the end of October 2025, the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry was at a reasonable level, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.1 [3]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new energy passenger vehicles was approximately 1.9, indicating a relatively normal inventory level [3]. - In October 2025, the market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 69.23%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7 percentage points [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on longer-term profit potential and timing operations based on ASP trends. Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, BYD, and others in the passenger vehicle chain [5]. - Specific stocks identified as having potential turning points include Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor [5].