原油撑腰政策托底“加强美弱”逻辑

Group 1 - The core exchange rate of USD/CAD is influenced by oil prices, central bank policy divergence, and economic fundamentals between the US and Canada [1][2] - Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts have led to a 12.3% increase in WTI crude oil prices, supporting the Canadian dollar and expanding Canada's trade surplus to 2.8 billion CAD in October [1] - The Federal Reserve has an 82.9% probability of rate cuts in December, while the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its rate at 4.75% until Q1 2026, creating a significant interest rate differential that supports the Canadian dollar [1][2] Group 2 - Economic data shows a stable Canadian economy with an unemployment rate of 5.7% and core inflation at 3.2%, contrasting with weaker US economic indicators, leading to a notable decline in USD/CAD [2] - The depreciation of the Canadian dollar benefits energy companies, while its appreciation requires firms to optimize pricing strategies to hedge risks [2] - The relationship between USD/CAD and energy indices is negatively correlated, enhancing the asset allocation value of the Canadian dollar [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that USD/CAD is at a critical trend reversal point, with strong support at the lower channel and 60-day moving average [3] - The MACD indicator remains in a bearish state, suggesting that downward momentum has not fully dissipated, while the KDJ indicator indicates potential short-term rebound demand [3] - Key resistance levels are identified, and failure to break through these levels could reinforce the downward trend, while breaking below previous lows may initiate a new downtrend [3] Group 4 - The convergence of technical bearish signals and the fundamental "weak US, stable Canada" narrative clarifies the current USD/CAD trend logic, providing decision-making guidance for market participants [4]