李迅雷：期望“十五五”期间出台一批超预期超常规刺激政策

Real Estate Cycle - The long-term upward phase of the real estate market from 2000 to 2020 led to a widespread belief that housing prices would not decline, despite contrary predictions from analysts like Professor Zhu Ning [1][2] - The average rental yield in core cities of China is around 2%, indicating a price-to-earnings ratio of 50 times, while Shanghai's rental yield is even lower, suggesting a need for adjustment to around 3% [2] - Real estate investment has seen a significant decline, with a 14.7% year-on-year drop in the first ten months, raising concerns about a consensus bearish outlook [2][3] Economic Impact - The real estate sector influences numerous industries, and its downturn is expected to affect economic growth through 2026, with private investment growth already showing a significant decline [2][3] - The need for a real estate stability fund has been suggested, as urbanization continues and many new citizens have yet to purchase homes, indicating potential structural shortages in first- and second-tier cities [3] Export and Trade - China's exports have shown resilience, with a 5.3% increase in the first ten months, despite concerns over a potential downturn in external demand in the coming year [4][5] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff wars, particularly with the U.S., are expected to impact trade volumes negatively, with a forecasted reduction in trade with major economies [5] Consumption and GDP Contribution - Consumption is projected to become a more significant contributor to GDP growth, especially as investment contributions decline [8] - The current economic environment shows a trend of high consumer debt levels, which may hinder future consumption growth unless addressed through fiscal measures [9] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with an anticipated increase in the broad deficit to around 13.2 trillion yuan, reflecting the need for stimulus amid economic pressures [15][19] - Interest rates may be lowered to stimulate demand, although this poses challenges for banks' net interest margins [18] Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market is currently facing resistance, with the need for corporate profit growth to drive a sustainable bull market, as recent gains have been primarily due to valuation increases rather than earnings growth [22][23] - Structural bull markets are anticipated, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI revolution, which may provide opportunities for growth in specific sectors [24]