Arthur Hayes Forecasts BTC Drop Below $80K Ahead of Fed QT Halt

Core Insights - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, indicates that macro liquidity trends are showing early signs of improvement, which may lead to a recovery in Bitcoin prices [1][3] - Hayes predicts that Bitcoin may dip below $80,000 in the near term but believes this level will act as support [2][3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to halt quantitative tightening on December 1, which could enhance liquidity conditions [3] Market Trends - U.S. banks have increased lending activity in November, suggesting greater liquidity that could benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin and digital assets [4] - Market research firm Swissblock reports a decline in its "Risk-Off Signal," indicating that the most intense selling phase may have passed, potentially signaling a shift towards buying momentum [5] Investment Flows - Digital asset investment products experienced outflows of $1.94 billion last week, totaling $4.92 billion over four weeks, marking the third-largest continuous outflow period since 2018 [6] - Bitcoin saw the largest outflow, with $1.27 billion exiting during the week, although there was a partial reversal with $225 million in inflows on Friday [6] - Ethereum also faced significant outflows of $589 million, representing 7.3% of its total assets under management [8]