万联证券：高速公路基本面经营稳健 政策端有潜在利好预期

Group 1 - The highway industry has entered a mature phase with slowed growth in operational mileage, characterized by heavy assets, long cycles, and stable returns, with a recovery in profitability expected in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The 13 listed highway companies showed a stable historical performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, and a 4.1% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025; net profit CAGR was 5.9%, with a 3.7% growth rate in the same period [1] - The gross and net profit margins are expected to improve in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Passenger turnover for highways is projected to maintain stable growth, with a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year to 4,278 billion person-kilometers from January to October 2025, driven by rising demand for inter-regional travel [2] - Freight turnover reached 65,484.48 billion ton-kilometers during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.71%, indicating stable growth in highway freight volume as the macro economy continues to recover [2] Group 3 - The construction costs of highways are rising, and the revenue-expenditure gap is expanding, with significant demands for raising toll standards and extending operating periods; as of 2021, the revenue-expenditure gap for repayable and operational highways was approximately 250 billion and 350 billion yuan, respectively [3] - There have been instances of toll increases in certain regions, particularly in the central and western areas, which have lower tolls compared to the eastern regions, indicating a stronger demand for adjustments [3] Group 4 - The highway sector has shown a cumulative increase of about 35% from 2014 to 2024, outperforming the broader market (with the CSI 300 index rising 11% in the same period), and has a competitive advantage in dividend yield compared to other high-dividend sectors [4] - The decline in interest rates is expected to reduce financial costs, thereby enhancing the profits of listed highway companies [4]