鸭绒涨价致羽绒服成本飙升，生产厂商：合理定价应为成本的2.6倍左右

Core Viewpoint - The price of down jackets is expected to surge due to rising raw material costs, with white duck down prices increasing significantly from 170,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan per ton, and goose down reaching 980,000 yuan per ton [1] Price Trends - As of November 25, 2023, the prices for white duck down are as follows: 95% down at 637.25 yuan/kg, 90% down at 564.06 yuan/kg, and 85% down at 521.22 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.85% and a year-on-year increase of over 13% [1][3] - Grey duck down has seen a price increase of 16% year-on-year [1] - For goose down, the prices are: 95% down at 1065.65 yuan/kg, 90% down at 943.26 yuan/kg, and 85% down at 871.62 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 0.51% but a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3][4] Cost Structure - The cost of down jackets is primarily determined by down, fabric, accessories, and labor costs, with down costs being the most transparent [1] - The actual cost of down after processing can reach at least 1 yuan per gram, leading to significant production costs for manufacturers [5] Market Dynamics - The demand for down jackets is influenced by seasonal factors and external trade, with a notable increase in foreign trade demand observed in November 2023 [5] - The average price of down jackets in China has risen from 438.6 yuan in 2015 to 656 yuan in 2020, and in 2023, the average selling price ranges from 500 yuan to 800 yuan [5] Future Projections - The market is expected to see further price increases in down jackets due to high winter demand and pre-holiday stocking, with high-end goose down prices projected to remain between 1300-1400 yuan/kg by late 2025 to early 2026 [6] - The price of washed duck down is anticipated to fluctuate between 550-580 yuan/kg, influenced by domestic poultry farming cycles and import adjustments [6]