【环球财经】欧盟委员会：欧元区明年整体财政立场应保持中性

Core Insights - The European Commission has stated that the overall fiscal stance of Eurozone member states should remain neutral in 2024, suggesting a reallocation of budget priorities to meet strategic investment needs [1] Group 1: Fiscal Projections - The budget deficit in the Eurozone is projected to slightly increase from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.2% in 2023, and further to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [1] - Countries such as Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Germany are expected to see an increase in their deficits next year due to rising defense expenditures [1] Group 2: Compliance and Challenges - The European Commission evaluated compliance with the EU fiscal framework and identified several strategic vulnerabilities, including low productivity, demographic pressures, and increasing public spending needs related to defense, decarbonization, and digital economy transitions [1] - Finland is deemed necessary to initiate an excessive deficit procedure based on the assessment results, while Germany is exempt from penalties due to increased defense spending leading to a breach of deficit limits [1] Group 3: Specific Country Projections - Finland's budget deficit is projected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2024, rising to 4.5% in 2023, and maintaining at 4.0% in the following year [2] - Germany's deficit is expected to be 3.1% of GDP this year, increasing to 4.0% by 2026 and 3.8% by 2027, exceeding the 3% limit set by the EU Stability and Growth Pact [2]