Feng Huang Wang·2025-11-26 05:29Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's CEO expressed confidence that an AI bubble is unlikely to emerge within the next three years, highlighting strong demand for both new and older GPU models in the industry [1] Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Alibaba reported a revenue increase of 5% year-on-year to 247.795 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with a 15% growth when excluding divested businesses [1] - The adjusted EBITA decreased by 78% to 9.073 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders fell by 52% to 20.99 billion yuan [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 10.352 billion yuan, down 72% year-on-year [1] - Alibaba's stock fell by 2.31% in the US market and 1.14% in Hong Kong following the earnings report [1] Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Alibaba announced a conservative capital expenditure plan of 380 billion yuan for AI infrastructure over three years, with potential for increased investment if demand continues to outpace supply [2] - The CFO noted that the current growth in server deployment is lagging behind customer orders, indicating a need for further investment [2] - The cloud intelligence segment generated 39.824 billion yuan in revenue, a 34% increase driven by public cloud business growth, including AI-related product adoption [2] AI Application Development - Alibaba launched the Qianwen App, which has surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week, aiming to integrate AI into both B2B and B2C sectors [3] - The app is expected to leverage Alibaba's ecosystem to create a future AI lifestyle entry point [3] Supply Chain and Resource Allocation - In response to ongoing supply chain fluctuations, Alibaba is prioritizing resource allocation for core model training and AI services, balancing internal needs with external customer demands [4] - The CEO emphasized that AI demand growth is certain over the next three years, with a global shortage of AI server resources expected to persist [4] E-commerce and Retail Strategy - Alibaba's China e-commerce group reported a revenue of 132.578 billion yuan for the second quarter, a 16% year-on-year increase, despite a 76% drop in adjusted EBITA due to investments in instant retail and technology [5] - Instant retail revenue reached 22.906 billion yuan, reflecting a 60% increase [6] - The company is optimizing its user experience in instant retail, with significant improvements in operational efficiency noted since October [6] - As of October 31, approximately 3,500 Tmall brands integrated their offline stores into instant retail, contributing to a substantial increase in daily orders during the Double 11 shopping festival [6] Marketing and Cash Flow - Sales and marketing expenses doubled to 66.496 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue, up from 13.7% the previous year, primarily due to investments in user experience [7] - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 68% to 10.099 billion yuan, while free cash flow turned negative at 21.840 billion yuan, down from a positive 13.735 billion yuan the previous year [7] - As of September 30, 2025, Alibaba's cash and other liquid investments totaled 573.889 billion yuan [7]