Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China (01928) with a target price of HKD 25.11, citing strong performance in Q3 2025 and confidence in the group's long-term development [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Overview - The overall performance in Q3 2025 was strong, with net revenue increasing by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter to USD 1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [1] - VIP business saw a decline of 16.3% year-on-year and 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 34% of 2019 levels [1] - Mass market business grew by 12.1% year-on-year and 9.0% quarter-on-quarter, with high-end mass market up 6.3% year-on-year and 10.8% quarter-on-quarter, and mass market up 18.6% year-on-year and 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Retail Business Performance - Gross revenue and operating profit in the retail segment increased by 4.0% and 4.6% year-on-year, and 4.0% and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, respectively [2] - Hotel occupancy rate was 96.8% with an average price of USD 230 [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 2.7% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter to USD 600 million, recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [2] Group 3: Performance of Individual Casinos - Revenue from various casinos: Venetian Macao at USD 692 million, Londoner at USD 686 million, Parisian at USD 218 million, Four Seasons at USD 206 million, and Sands Macao at USD 72 million [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for these casinos: USD 242 million for Venetian, USD 219 million for Londoner, USD 53 million for Parisian, USD 102 million for Four Seasons, and USD 8 million for Sands, with recovery rates to 2019 levels at 71%, 130%, 44%, 136%, and 15% respectively [3] Group 4: Other Key Points - The group's market share has rebounded due to the full service of the second phase of the Londoner and new promotional strategies [4] - Short-term EBITDA is expected to reach USD 2.7-2.8 billion, with growth in the VIP segment driven by super VIP clients and increased market liquidity [4] - The group has repurchased USD 340 million in shares, increasing its ownership stake to 74.76% [4]
第一上海：维持金沙中国(01928)“买入”评级 全新推广策略开始见效