商业库存去化继续放缓 沥青盘面低位震荡为主

Market Review - The main contract for asphalt futures (2601) experienced a fluctuating increase, with a rise of 1.19% and a closing price of 3068 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of November 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease of 22,320 tons in the futures warehouse receipts for petroleum asphalt, totaling 2,200 tons; the warehouse receipts remained stable at 4,690 tons [2] - The average price of asphalt in the domestic market on November 25 was 3,336 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton, or 0.03% [3] - The comprehensive profit for asphalt as of November 25 was -470 CNY/ton, which represents a decline of 50.86 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [4] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the current spot market continues to exert pressure on the futures market, with refineries releasing a significant amount of low-priced contracts. The social inventory is approximately 15% higher than the same period last year, coupled with a weakening downstream demand. The expected production reduction in December for local refineries is relatively low, indicating a continued loose supply-demand balance. The recent stability of asphalt prices around 3,000 CNY/ton shows limited decline compared to other oil products, suggesting a short-term outlook of low-level fluctuations [5] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that the weekly shipment volume since November has been at a near four-year low. The latest commercial inventory reduction is slowing down, and social inventory has shown an expanding trend after a year-on-year high point at the end of October. The recent stability in Shandong's spot market has provided some support to the futures market. However, future demand is expected to follow seasonal weakening patterns, indicating medium to long-term bearish pressure on the fundamentals of asphalt [5]