LSEG跟“宗” | 12月降息几率又回升 “高位”沽金换币的投资者叫苦不迭

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market sentiment and the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, highlighting a shift in expectations for rate cuts in December and January [4][25]. - It emphasizes the volatility in gold prices and the broader implications for asset management strategies, particularly among fund managers [4][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in January has increased from 17.4% to 25.2% over two weeks, with expectations for a December cut rising from 40.6% to 58.3% [25][24]. - The article suggests that the market's perception of rate cuts significantly influences stock valuations, particularly regarding the timing of potential cuts [4][25]. Group 2: Gold and Other Assets Performance - Gold prices have seen a significant increase from approximately $2,300 to around $4,000, with a recent decline of 7.2% from this year's peak of $4,381 [5][25]. - Comparatively, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin have also experienced declines of 7.4% and 31.7%, respectively, indicating that gold has outperformed these assets in the current market [5][25]. Group 3: Fund Management and Positioning - Managed positions in COMEX gold have decreased by 10.3%, while silver and platinum have seen declines of 19.8% and 11.6%, respectively, indicating a shift in fund manager strategies [5][13]. - The article notes that fund managers are locking in profits and reducing leverage, contributing to recent asset price declines [4][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The article posits that the global economy may not recover significantly next year, with inflationary pressures potentially impacting investment strategies [28]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring gold prices as a barometer for market sentiment, particularly in relation to economic indicators and geopolitical risks [18][19].