印尼国有化进程加速，棕榈油价格底部或抬升

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government is intensifying efforts to combat illegal palm oil plantations, leading to significant ownership changes in nearly 20% of the country's palm oil plantations by 2025, which is expected to elevate palm oil prices by 2026 due to reduced planting area and rising costs [1][2]. Group 1: Government Actions and Impact - In 2025, Indonesia is implementing strong measures to clear illegal palm oil plantations, with enforcement efforts surpassing previous years [2]. - The ongoing extension of Indonesia's "New Plantation Moratorium" is hindering the traditional growth model based on land expansion, raising concerns about potential reductions in total planting area [2]. - The confiscation of 3.1 million hectares of illegal plantations, if fully counted as palm oil land, represents about 19% of the national palm oil area, potentially affecting an annual production of approximately 10 million tons [2]. Group 2: Production and Yield Concerns - The management quality of palm oil plantations in Indonesia varies significantly, with government and state-owned plantations achieving yields of up to 4.5 tons per hectare, while smallholders typically maintain yields below 3.5 tons per hectare [4]. - The confiscated lands may not be suitable for continued cultivation or could be converted back to forest, leading to a reduction in effective planting area [4]. - Future production growth will heavily depend on improving yields through high-yield varieties and technological advancements, which require substantial capital investment [4]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The nationalization of plantations will introduce stricter environmental and social responsibility standards, increasing compliance costs that will become a fixed part of production costs [6]. - The costs associated with replanting and technological upgrades will likely be passed on to palm oil pricing, raising the price floor [7]. - The government's enhanced control over the market through nationalization will increase the sensitivity of palm oil prices to export taxes and domestic market obligations, potentially maintaining higher price levels in the long term [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The expected average price for domestic 24-degree palm oil in 2026 is projected to be 9,210 yuan per ton, which will continue to exert pressure on downstream industries such as food, personal care, and biofuels due to rising raw material costs [7].