Gold Prices: Goldman Sachs Sees Precious Metal Rising Almost 20% in 2026

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to see nearly 20% price upside by the end of 2026, with a forecast price of $4,900 per troy ounce, driven by structural changes in central bank purchases and potential Fed rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases have increased significantly since the freezing of Russia's central bank reserves in 2022, prompting reserve managers to diversify into gold as a safe asset [2][3]. - The expectation of further Fed rate cuts, estimated at 75 basis points, is likely to attract more inflows into gold ETFs, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [3][4]. Group 2: Private Sector Investment - There is potential for a broadening of gold investment beyond central banks to private sector investors, which could further enhance the bullish gold price forecast [4][5]. - The gold market is relatively small compared to the US Treasury market, meaning that even a small diversification from global bond markets could lead to significant price increases for gold [5]. Group 3: Overall Market Sentiment - Gold is positioned as a favored long commodity recommendation, with significant upside potential in both base case scenarios and in less favorable market conditions, such as concerns about fiscal trajectories or Fed independence [6].