Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the demand for transformers and switches is driven by the growth of data centers and renewable energy construction, leading to a supply chain bottleneck due to the time required to increase transformer production capacity [1][2] - The global data center market is expected to grow from $242.72 billion in 2024 to $584.86 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.62%, indicating a significant increase in demand for transformers and switches [1] - The backlog of transformer orders is severe, and the delivery cycle is expected to remain high until 2025, making it difficult to alleviate the supply-demand gap in the short term [2] Group 2 - By 2025, the demand for electric transformers in the U.S. is projected to exceed supply by 30%, with a distribution transformer gap of 10% [3] - China accounts for one-fourth of global transformer exports, and the U.S. and Europe are heavily reliant on imports, highlighting the dependency of the European and American markets on imported transformers [3] - The trade value of electric transformers has increased by 80% globally from 2018 to 2023, with China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey collectively accounting for half of the total trade value [3]
国泰海通:数据中心等带动变压器、开关需求 行业供给缺口明显