海通国际：维持石药集团(01093)“优于大市”评级 成药各板块收入环比改善

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) with a target price of HKD 11.34, noting a revenue decline in the first three quarters but signs of recovery in Q3, with a 10% quarter-on-quarter growth in traditional medicine revenue and a 27% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, CSPC achieved revenue of CNY 19.9 billion, a 12% year-on-year decline, with traditional medicine revenue at CNY 15.5 billion (down 17%), API revenue at CNY 3 billion (up 10%), and functional foods and other businesses at CNY 1.4 billion (up 11%) [1]. - The gross margin was 65.6%, down 4.9 percentage points year-on-year; R&D expenses were CNY 4.2 billion (up 8%), with an R&D expense ratio of 21.0% (up 3.9 percentage points); the sales expense ratio was 24.1% (down 5.1 percentage points) [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was CNY 3.5 billion, a 7% year-on-year decline [1]. Q3 Performance - In Q3 2025, CSPC reported revenue of CNY 6.6 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, with traditional medicine revenue at CNY 5.2 billion (up 2% year-on-year, up 10% quarter-on-quarter) [2]. - The gross margin was 65.6%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year; R&D expenses were CNY 1.5 billion (up 12.3%), with an R&D expense ratio of 22.7% (up 1.8 percentage points); the sales expense ratio was 26.4% (down 2.4 percentage points) [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was CNY 960 million, a 27% year-on-year increase but a 10% quarter-on-quarter decline [2]. Traditional Medicine Business - In Q3, all segments of the traditional medicine business showed improvement, indicating a bottoming out of fundamentals, with traditional medicine revenue of CNY 4.7 billion and drug revenue of CNY 4.7 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter) [3]. - Specific revenue breakdown includes: - Neurological system: CNY 1.91 billion (down 4% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) - Oncology: CNY 590 million (down 47% year-on-year, up 19% quarter-on-quarter) - Anti-infection: CNY 830 million (down 9% year-on-year, up 12% quarter-on-quarter) - Cardiovascular: CNY 470 million (up 18% year-on-year, up 4% quarter-on-quarter) - Respiratory: CNY 320 million (up 73% year-on-year, up 28% quarter-on-quarter) - Metabolism: CNY 250 million (up 14% year-on-year, up 8% quarter-on-quarter) - Other therapeutic areas: CNY 360 million (up 26% year-on-year, down 4% quarter-on-quarter) [3]. - The company expects a 5% revenue growth in the traditional medicine segment (excluding authorized revenue) in the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. Asset Expansion and R&D Progress - The SYS6010 (EGFRADC) clinical trial is progressing well, with significant potential for external licensing; multiple technology platforms and products are expected to expand internationally [4]. - Management plans to present clinical data for SYS6010 at major academic conferences next year and publish lung cancer clinical data in top journals [5]. - The small RNA platform has five assets entering clinical stages, focusing on liver-targeted and multi-target products, with plans for new products in weight loss and muscle gain to enter clinical trials next year [6]. - The PD-1/IL15 pipeline is a key focus, with over 90 patients enrolled in dose-exploration trials, showing promising safety and efficacy results [6].