现金流ETF（159399）收红，市场关注自由现金流改善逻辑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after entering the industrialization maturity phase in 2018, investors in China have significantly increased their focus on free cash flow (FCFF), leading to enhanced excess returns in industries with improved FCFF [1] - The current "anti-involution" policy is driving a contraction in manufacturing CAPEX, resulting in a "passive improvement" of free cash flow; simultaneously, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate the return of cross-border capital, further repairing EBIT in manufacturing and consumption sectors, leading to an "active improvement" of free cash flow [1] - Industries such as resources, consumption, and light asset technology (computers/media) are showing significant excess returns during the free cash flow improvement phase, primarily driven by the resonance of EBIT elevation and the contraction of CAPEX/working capital [1] Group 2 - The essence of the manufacturing "anti-involution" is to repair cash flow through CAPEX contraction (cost-saving) and EBIT enhancement (revenue-generating), with signs of improvement already observed in sub-sectors like new energy and cement [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cash flow ETFs (159399), which have outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments for interested investors [1]