Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-26 08:11Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba while lowering its forecast for China's e-commerce EBITA growth due to slowing total transaction growth in the second fiscal quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's e-commerce total transaction growth has slowed, but Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 34% year-on-year, and AI-related capital expenditures rose by 80%, both exceeding expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 is lowered by 11%, while forecasts for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 are raised by 6% and 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Concerns among investors are primarily related to management's forecast of slowing GMV-related revenue growth and fluctuations in China's e-commerce EBITA due to intensified competition [1] - The target price for Hong Kong stocks is reduced from 199 HKD to 192 HKD, and the target price for U.S. stocks is decreased from 205 USD to 197 USD [1] Group 3: Valuation - Goldman Sachs maintains a valuation of Alibaba Cloud at approximately 54 USD per share, reinforcing its positive outlook as China's largest cloud service provider [1] - The forecast for China's e-commerce EBITA growth for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 has been revised down from 2%, 11%, and 9% to 1%, 5%, and 5% respectively [1]