基本面改善力度受限 热卷走势或延续震荡运行态势

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil market in Tangshan has stabilized, with prices holding steady in the afternoon of November 26, 2025, indicating a balance in market dynamics despite ongoing supply pressures [1]. Group 1: Market Prices - On November 26, 2025, the mainstream price for hot-rolled coils in Tangshan was reported at 3220-3240 CNY per ton for common coils and 3350-3370 CNY per ton for manganese coils [1]. - Specific prices for Q235B hot-rolled coils (5.51500C) from Shagang were listed as follows: 3380 CNY per ton in Shanghai Pudong, 3390 CNY per ton in Baoshan, and 3380 CNY per ton in Jinshan and Yangpu [1]. Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price for the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on November 26 was 3304.00 CNY per ton, with a slight decline of 0.03%. The highest price reached was 3310.00 CNY per ton, while the lowest was 3294.00 CNY per ton, with a trading volume of 302,766 contracts [1]. Group 3: Inventory and Production Data - As of November 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease of 2,656 tons in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts, totaling 113,732 tons [2]. - National hot-rolled coil production for the week was 4.1109 million tons, down by 14,900 tons from the previous week. Factory inventory increased by 22,700 tons to 1.0353 million tons, while social inventory decreased by 21,500 tons to 3.5076 million tons, resulting in a total inventory of 4.5429 million tons, which is an increase of 1,200 tons [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis - According to Baocan Futures' research report, the supply-demand dynamics for hot-rolled coils have improved, with inventory levels decreasing. However, supply pressures remain unresolved, and demand resilience is in question. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited, leading to a forecast of continued volatile market conditions, with a focus on steel mill production [3].