基本面依旧偏弱 短期锌价或有所承压

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is experiencing a mixed scenario with prices showing slight increases in the short term, but overall demand remains weak, leading to potential downward pressure on prices in the near future [5]. Price Overview - On November 26, the spot price for 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 22,400.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 45.0 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 22,355.00 CNY/ton [1]. - A nationwide zinc price overview on the same date shows various market prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices at 22,450 CNY/ton and Guangdong at 22,190 CNY/ton [2]. Futures Market - The Shanghai zinc futures market closed on November 26 with the main contract at 22,355.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04%. The highest price reached was 22,425.00 CNY/ton, while the lowest was 22,280.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 96,212 lots [2]. Inventory Levels - As of November 25, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants at 44,950 tons, with a slight decrease in canceled warrants to 3,050 tons. Total zinc inventory increased by 575 tons to 48,000 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a zinc warehouse receipt of 73,819 tons, which is an increase of 922 tons compared to the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - According to Hongyuan Futures research, domestic smelters are actively purchasing domestic ore due to economic considerations, maintaining a tight supply of domestic ore. The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have decreased to 2,350 CNY/metal ton, while the import zinc concentrate processing fee index has dropped to 73.05 USD/dry ton [5]. - The overall demand remains weak, particularly with outdoor construction in northern regions slowing down due to colder weather and environmental regulations affecting downstream operations. The zinc market fundamentals are still weak, and short-term prices may face pressure [5]. - In the medium term, there is an expectation of tightening at the ore end in the fourth quarter, which may provide some support for zinc prices, although the overall market remains cautious due to structural risks [5].