AI应用推升存储芯片需求，行业景气或持续至明年中

Core Viewpoint - The global investor confidence in AI is being restored, driven by the explosion of AI model applications like Google's Gemini 3.0 and Alibaba's Qianwen, leading to a renewed interest in storage chips as a crucial material in AI infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage chip market is experiencing a significant supply shortage, with companies struggling to fulfill orders, leading to a situation where customers can only receive about 30% of their ordered quantities [3] - Prices for NAND and NOR storage chips are not only rising but also facing shortages, with expectations of continued price increases into mid-next year [2][4] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SanDisk have initiated new rounds of price hikes, with Samsung's memory chip prices increasing by up to 60% since September [4][5] Group 2: Future Price Projections - There is an optimistic outlook for further price increases, with estimates suggesting at least a 50% rise from September levels, following a doubling of DRAM prices and a 100% increase in NAND prices since the beginning of the year [4][5] - The DDR5 segment is particularly highlighted as having significant price elasticity, with expectations of substantial price increases due to high demand from AI applications and a shift from DDR4 to DDR5 [5][6] Group 3: Supply Chain Concentration - The storage market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron controlling 70% of the global market, allowing them to exert significant influence over pricing [5][6] - The supply-demand imbalance is projected to reach a gap of 20% to 30%, indicating a persistent shortage in the market [5][7] Group 4: Industry Response - Chinese storage companies are becoming increasingly important in the global market, with advancements in technology and product offerings, such as Changxin Memory's latest DDR5 product series [1][2] - The industry anticipates that the current price increase trend will last for at least two to three more quarters, with a potential resolution of shortages contingent on the ramp-up of DDR5 production capacity in China [8]