智通财经网·2025-11-26 09:13Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities emphasizes the importance of consumption in economic growth, predicting a stabilization in the consumption fundamentals in 2026, which presents a significant opportunity for investment in the food and beverage industry [1] Group 1: Alcohol Industry - The liquor sector is at a cyclical bottom, with low expectations, low holdings, and low valuations, suggesting potential for left-side layout opportunities [2] - The rapid clearing of financial reports in the past two quarters indicates a resolution of supply-demand conflicts, with a gradual recovery in household consumption expected [2] - The white liquor business model remains strong, and with a potential economic recovery, valuations are likely to rebound quickly [2] Group 2: Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to maintain a structural market in 2026, with investment opportunities in companies with strong single-product growth logic and those benefiting from competitor adjustments [3] - Overall profitability in the beer sector is on an upward trend, driven by the expansion of products priced between 8-10 yuan and improved efficiency from lean management [3] Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is positioned for a turnaround in the raw milk cycle in 2026, with a focus on the profitability elasticity of the dairy supply chain [4] - Demand for dairy products has shown differentiation, with low-temperature fresh milk and cheese experiencing healthy growth, while room temperature liquid milk has been a drag [4] - The average milk price in major production areas is expected to recover above the average cost of production in 2026, making it an opportune time to invest in the dairy supply chain [4] Group 4: Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink sector has seen significant performance differentiation, with companies in strong growth categories leading the industry [5] - In 2026, there is a focus on functional beverages and the competitive landscape of packaged water, with an emphasis on companies introducing new products [5] - The demand for low-sugar functional beverages is anticipated to grow, particularly among white-collar workers seeking fatigue-relief options [5] Group 5: Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from strong new channel drivers, with expectations of improved gross and net profit margins due to scale effects [6] - The konjac product category is maintaining high market interest, with significant growth potential in China [6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong performance during the adjustment period and those with leading products in the snack sector [6]