SoftBank(US:SOBKY) 智通财经网·2025-11-26 09:44Core Viewpoint - Concerns about the bubble-like valuations in the AI sector are weighing heavily on SoftBank Group's stock price, with the market increasingly viewing SoftBank as a "shadow proxy" for the unlisted OpenAI, leading to significant stock volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - SoftBank's stock has experienced a dramatic decline of nearly 40% since late October, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over 16 trillion yen (approximately $102 billion) [1]. - The recent launch of Google's Gemini 3.0 has intensified competitive pressures on OpenAI, contributing to a broader sell-off in the AI sector that has adversely affected SoftBank [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that SoftBank's stock fluctuations are more reflective of its sensitivity to OpenAI's performance rather than a general weakness in the AI market [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategic Moves - SoftBank's deep exposure to the AI sector, particularly its stake in OpenAI, has led to a significant unrealized gain of $14.6 billion, which was a key driver for a net profit surge to 2.5 trillion yen in the second fiscal quarter [2]. - The company is preparing to invest an additional $2.25 billion in OpenAI as part of a larger $32 billion commitment, highlighting its aggressive strategy to become a central player in the AI ecosystem [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions and Challenges - SoftBank recently completed a $6.5 billion acquisition of Ampere Computing, a U.S. chip design company, while also facing the need to raise funds for a proposed $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB Ltd.'s robotics division [3]. - The CFO of SoftBank expressed caution regarding the current valuation landscape, indicating that the determination of whether the AI sector is in a bubble can only be made in hindsight [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Investment Logic Shift - The rise of RISC-V architecture poses a competitive challenge to SoftBank's investments, as it gains traction in the AI chip design space, potentially impacting traditional players like NVIDIA [5]. - The investment logic in the AI sector is shifting from indiscriminate buying to a more selective approach, with investors now focusing on identifying winners and losers within the industry [6].